Got some interesting charts on the state of play in Iowa (which were, to be sure, forwarded to me by a member of the Edwards camp). First, on media expenditures:
And how're those expenditures working out? This graph tracks polling averages, and has arrows for when the various media blitzes began.
So Edwards, who's spent nothing, has dropped slightly. Hillary's blitz has coincided with a rise in the polls. And Obama, who's spent the most, has stayed basically steady. Presumably, the lesson Edwards learned from 2004 was that Iowans make up their minds late, and a strong finish is endlessly preferable to a seemingly bulletproof summer and fall. So he'll hold back until then. Additionally, the less likely Edwards looks in Iowa, the more a win there would mean for his campaign. If the expectations are that Hillary will win, an Edwards victory would launch him into New Hampshire. If the expectations are that Edwards will win and he does, the boost will be much weaker.
That said, Obama and Hillary will have more than enough cash to sustain massive media campaigns in the final months, so Edwards' strategy won't, in any way, leave him to dominate the airwaves. So we'll see.
