As per Nate Silver, the results of yesterday’s Des Moines Register poll in Iowa were good for Mitt Romney, bad for Tim Pawlenty, and great for Michele Bachmann.
Romney leads the field with support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann places second with 22 percent, and Herman Cain secures third place with 10 percent. Despite campaigning for 26 days and spending $50,000 on television ads (so far, more than any other candidate), Pawlenty was outpaced by Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich with 6 percent of the vote.
On close examination, Romney's lead is deceptive; with net favorables of +14 (55 percent favorable minus 38 percent unfavorable) he is less popular than any candidate other than Gingrich. High unfavorability suggests a limit to Romney's support among Iowa Republicans; moderates aside, there aren't many people who want to throw support in his direction. By contrast, Iowa voters like Pawlenty – at 58/13, his net favorablility rating is +45 – which is a sign that he's at the lower bound of his possible support. With fewer candidates in the race, Pawlenty might move to a first, second or third place finish. That said, as the Des Moines Register’s Jennifer Jacobs points out, while voters like the Minnesota governor, they aren't so thrilled about his campaign, “Among those who pick Romney as their first choice, only 15 percent choose Pawlenty as their second choice. Bachmann would get 26 percent of that Romney vote.”
Indeed, these poll results show Bachmann could secure a second-place “win.” Despite her small presence in Iowa (she has only spent eight days in the state), her net favorability rating is +53, making her the most popular candidate in the race. Moreover, her support is probably limited by the presence of other right-wing, Tea Party-focused candidates. Absent Paul, Rick Santorum or Cain, there’s little doubt that Bachmann would be ahead.
A few caveats: At this point in 2007, John Edwards was the Democratic favorite in Iowa, with Mitt Romney as the presumptive Republican nominee. Of course, when the caucuses came, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee emerged as the winners. At the moment, there’s no way of knowing the effect of a Rick Perry candidacy on Iowa caucus-goers, nor can we predict the outcome of Herman Cain’s popularity with Tea Party voters. It’s too early to do anything but wait, and see.
