To follow up on Ann's report, the Iowa Supreme Court's unanimous decision was surprising and obviously good news. The text of Varnum v. Brien can be found here. Unlike many conservatives who will criticize the decision, I'm not going to pretend to be an expert in Iowa equal protection law, but it's certainly not inconsistent with the text of the state constitution. The local district attorney's claim that the lower court's ruling violated "the separation of powers" is therefore obviously specious: In our system, courts are permitted to examine legislation to ensure that they conform with the equal protection of the laws.
In response to Ann's fear that there will be "a bigger national anti-gay uproar in response to the Iowa decision than there was after California or Massachusetts," a few points:
- As longtime readers will know, I don't buy claims that judicial decisions produce any more backlash than other political outcomes. While the ruling will be unpopular in states where same-sex marriage is unpopular, I don't think it will have any more impact than that. Other state court rulings have not stopped long-term trends showing increasing support for same-sex marriage rights, and while I suppose a ruling in a purple state could be different, I very much doubt it. I don't think public opinion about same-sex marriage will be significantly different a year from now.
- Even if Ann is right that the decision will create a bigger backlash because of the location, the effects of any such backlash pretty much by definition have to be more modest. States can't ban same-sex marriage twice, so even a brief spike in opposition to same-sex marriage in these states would be much less consequential. A federal constitutional amendment is even more obviously DOA than it was in 2004. And given the economy, it's unlikely that same-sex marriage will be a high priority issue in the next off-term congressional elections.
- If I understand correctly, Iowa could not overturn this decision through an initiative, but the legislature could create a referendum on a constitutional amendment if it passes by majority vote in two consecutive legislative sessions. Hopefully the legislature will not go down that road, and the current legislative leadership at least seems to have no interest in doing so, which if it holds up would make 2014 the earliest possible year for a vote. If you live in Iowa, make sure to send these legislators a supportive message.
--Scott Lemieux
