Early Sunday morning, 53-year-old Jeanne Cecil, an employee at the United Steelworkers headquarters in Pittsburgh, pulled out of her driveway and embarked on a 12-hour drive to Iowa.
At 10 a.m. the next day, Cecil arrived at the Des Moines USW local, a cement building in Capitol East, a working-class neighborhood of low-slung houses, industrial plants, and railroad tracks. The USW has endorsed John Edwards in the Democratic presidential primary, and Cecil was ready to canvas for her candidate. The neighborhood reminded her of towns in western Pennsylvania that have been decimated by the loss of factory jobs. "This is actually more vibrant," she remarked as she trudged through the snow.
Cecil planned to knock on about 50 doors Monday alongside Kim Miller, another USW member from the Pittsburgh area. In these final days before the Iowa caucuses, the Edwards campaign field efforts are focused on bringing out experienced caucus-goers, and Cecil and Miller visited registered Democratic union families, mostly steel, paper, and rubber workers. The canvassers' message focused not only on Edwards' long-standing promise to aggressively wrest political power away from corporations but also on a newer, closing argument from the campaign, one that harks back to Edwards' pitch in 2004: electability. National polls are showing that Edwards is the Democratic candidate who would fare best against all the potential Republican nominees.
Edwards' popularity among swing voters is likely due more to his name recognition and touching personal story than to his populist stance, which has been much more explicit this cycle than it was in 2004. While an anti-corporate message has surged Edwards toward a three-way tie with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Iowa, populism is proving to be a tougher sell among remaining undecided voters, the 7 to 14 percent of Democrats who will likely determine the caucuses' outcome. Outside Iowa, most swing voters have not yet tuned into the presidential race, and some Iowa Democrats seem concerned about what other Americans will think when they meet the more aggressive John Edwards of 2008.
"I agree with the ideas, but he's going to be on a slippery slope if he continues with that angry rhetoric," one Des Moines man told Cecil and Miller. An active Democrat in his 40s, the man said that his first choice at the caucus would be Joe Biden and that he had ruled Edwards out as a second choice.
Edwards' campaign, however, is built around the assumption that a president who confronts corporate America wouldn't be divisive but rather, unifying. In Iowa television commercials, Edwards frames himself as a lifelong anti-corporate crusader, drawing upon his experience as a personal injury trial lawyer. Mailers blanketing the state emphasize his electability.
At a campaign event on Sunday in Boone, a small town one hour north of Des Moines with many empty store fronts, Edwards linked the two themes. "I want to be absolutely clear that the corporate greed that is destroying the middle class of this country and stealing your children's future, it is stealing the future of Democrats' children, Independents' children, Republicans' children." He swore, "I'm telling you, this is a message and a cause we can unite America around."
Like Clinton and Obama, Edwards often speaks about rising economic inequality; the top 1 percent of American earners make more than the bottom 50 percent combined. But unlike his competitors, Edwards always appears viscerally riled up about the problem. His biggest applause lines in Boone came when he railed against the free-trade agreements NAFTA and CAFTA, and promised to crack down on American employers who hire undocumented workers. And Edwards didn't question the assumptions of an elderly man who asked about immigrants, "Why do we want them?" The implication, of course, was that we don't.
Edwards responded that he supported tight border security and would encourage economic development in Mexico to stem the northward tide of immigrants. He cautiously mentioned a path toward earned citizenship for undocumented workers but added, "This is controversial, but if you want to be an American citizen, you better learn how to speak English!" The crowd cheered. In a state that is 95 percent white, there's nothing really controversial about "English only."
But this rabble-rousing underbelly of Edwards' rural, "up from the mills" message turns off some Democrats, particularly younger urbanites. At an Edwards rally in Des Moines Saturday evening, King Au and his wife were among a handful of audience-members who raised their hands to indicate they were undecided caucus-goers. The packed high school cafeteria was dominated by enthusiastic Steelworkers, but Au, a photographer, wasn't convinced by Edwards' speech.
"I'm looking for someone with a global perspective, someone who will work within the system to reform it," said Au, who caucused for John Kerry four years ago. He questioned Edwards' promise to muscle China into reducing its carbon emissions. "As a Chinese American, I know we can't just make China meet us on the environment," he said. "They're a major power." Au and his wife said they would also attend upcoming Clinton and Biden events.
If Edwards can't convince late-deciding voters like the Aus to support him here in Iowa, where he's spent more time since 2004 than any other Democrat, it's unlikely he'll get the chance to test his theory of electable, progressive populism in the general election. Edwards has accepted public financing and has raised less money than both Clinton and Obama. He trails them by more than 10 points in New Hampshire, which will hold its primary just five days after the Iowa caucuses.
But are Iowa Democrats over-thinking the contours of Edwards' electability? On the ground, there's some evidence that the candidate's fighting words do appeal to swing voters. Republican Mary Hamilton accompanied her Republican mother-in-law to the Edwards rally in Boone on Sunday. Hamilton's brother-in-law is a quadriplegic, and the family supports stem cell research. Edwards told them he'd be the most pro-science president in American history. "If my mother-in-law liked what Edwards said today, she might switch parties for the caucus," Hamilton confided.
While many Iowa voters are like Hamilton's mother-in-law, carefully weighing the issues and reconsidering their party affiliation, others are much more typical Americans -- less than fully acquainted with the details of candidates' policy proposals, and relying mostly on their guts to make a decision. Canvassing for a few hours quickly bursts the myth that Iowans are uniquely qualified to choose the next president.
On Monday in Des Moines, Cecil and Miller stepped into the crowded kitchen of a couple in their 50s. The man quickly left the room. "He don't vote," apologized his wife, who had planted an Edwards sign on the front lawn and amassed a bulletin board full of the candidate's flyers. But she was still confused as to what exactly a caucus was. "I don't mean to be stupid, but when do I actually vote? When do I go into the booth?" she asked.
When she learned she'd have to physically stand up for her candidate, she exclaimed, "Then I'm definitely going! John Edwards is a good family man, and that's why I'm voting for him. He loves his wife."
No matter what Iowans think about John Edwards, they do believe they know him well. It's far too close to call how this familiarity will play out on caucus night, but it's good news for Edwards that 62 percent of voters identify him as their second-choice candidate, meaning some will switch into his column when candidates like Bill Richardson and Joe Biden fail to reach the viability threshold of 15 percent of voters per precinct.
If Edwards takes Iowa in a convincing victory, progressive populism could gain national legs. But three days out, it's looking probable that no matter who wins in Iowa, the victory will be razor-thin. That would leave Edwards' anti-corporate strategy with neither a clear mandate nor a clear rejection, and his presidential hopes without a clear path forward.
Editor's Note: An error in a previous version of this story has been corrected.
