Ze'ev Schiff often reflects the military intelligence in Israel, so it's worth taking his assessment of Iran's role in the conflict seriously:
Well-placed sources in Israel argue that Iran is behind the decision to attack Israel and that Tehran influenced the timing of the Hezbollah attack in which two soldiers were abducted last Wednesday. Iran is Hezbollah's main arms supplier, including long-range rockets and missiles of the kind that struck an Israeli destroyer and sunk a Cambodian freighter on Friday night. This in addition to massive transfers of cash.
[...]
What distinguishes Iran from all the participants in this conflict is that it is the only one not menaced by direct military threat. It is believed Iran influenced the timing of the attack to divert international attention from the pressure on Tehran to cease its uranium enrichment program, a matter that is likely to be brought before the UN Security Council in the future.
From the Hezbollah perspective, the timing of the attack suits its assessment that the only way it can reclaim a central political position in Lebanon, following a drop in its popularity, is through the challenge of a military confrontation with Israel.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, assumed Israel's response would be of the moderate sort like that following the withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May 2000. Soon after the abduction, Hezbollah officers turned to UNIFIL and suggested a cease-fire as early as that evening. The Israeli response has come as a surprise to Hezbollah and Iranian advisers.
