With all of the attention given to Iran's civil conflict and the rapidly changing situation in Afghanistan, it sometimes feel like the war in Iraq is being left a little by the wayside. But with the rapid approach of the June 30 deadline for U.S. forces to pull out of all Iraqi cities and towns violence is renewing and mistrust increasing -- some Iraqis even believe that the U.S. is facilitating the disruptions so they can continue to occupy the streets -- though it's true that the level of violence in Iraq is still relatively low. The White House has said that the pull out will be going forward, although in the past commanding General Ray Odierno has suggested that some troops may stay in cities if the Iraqi government so requests.
There's going to be a lot of clamor, especially from the right, for the administration to keep soldiers in the cities after the deadline, and increasing attacks will be the cause of that. It's going to be important for U.S. legitimacy in Iraq and the international sphere, as well as for President Obama's domestic political aspirations, to take this tangible step toward full U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and limit or eliminate any exceptions to the withdrawal. It seems likely that violence will increase at first without U.S. troops among the people, but at the same time the hope is that seeing U.S. forces withdraw will be a signal to Iraqis that insurgency isn't necessary and that occupation is drawing down, leaving only the most ideological groups in operation for Iraqi security forces and U.S. troops to address. (I'll be curious to hear what the counterinsurgency folks think of this.) As well, the move will hopefully be another incentive for Iraq's political elites to seek further reconciliation.
It's amazing that the bruising political battles over Iraq that dominated the news from, oh, 2003 through last summer, have been reduced as realities in Iraq have led policy-makers to converge in a wary compromise around this staggered pull-out while all the noise surrounds the long-neglected Afghanistan war. But all that may change as withdrawal changes the dynamics within Iraq.
-- Tim Fernholz
