Elizabeth Bakanic has an article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists about shifting attitudes towards nuclear power in Japan. Bakanic argues that we are witnessing a generational change in the perception of nuclear weapons, such that they are no longer understood to be politically off the table. Long a "third rail" of Japanese politics, discussion of the (literal) nuclear option doesn't seem to be the poison it once was. Bakanic doesn't think that we'll see a nuclear Japan anytime soon, but does worry that the shift in Japanese attitude may be threatening to Japan's neighbors, and may further damage the already weakened non-proliferation regime.
The argument makes sense to me; Japan has good reasons for supporting the NPT independent of culture, but the degree of enthusiasm is certainly affected by anti-nuclear attitudes. However, I also think it's possible that shifts in the structure of power in East Asia (a successful Taiwanese independence declaration, for example) might create a situation in which Japan does feel the need to develop its own nuclear deterrent.
Read the whole thing.
--Robert Farley
