Where will job growth come from? Various observers haven't hesitated to predict a jobless recovery, but there may be signs that we will see job growth sooner than expected. While we won't know the first estimates for economic growth in the third quarter of this year until next month, Paul Krugman notes that a key indicator -- industrial production -- is growing quickly, at a 5.2 percent annual rate during the third quarter. That could mean higher than expected economic growth (right now the consensus is roughly a 3 percent growth rate), but more important, that we could see more hiring in the future. Economist James Hamilton says that "that kind of growth is inconsistent with a jobless recovery." Both men offer caveats -- it will still take years for the labor market to recover from the recession -- but growth in industry is still a promising sign. Meanwhile, Robert Samuelson takes the pages of the Washington Post to nag about the deficit -- without mentioning that there are zero signs that the deficit is crowding out private investment -- and decides that the "middle way" to improving job growth is to ... lift environmental regulations, like requiring permits for industrial sites that emit more than 25,000 tons of greenhouse emissions each year. I'm sure the inability of industrial corporations to pollute the air at will is the main factor standing in front of job creation in this country, not, you know, the recession.
-- Tim Fernholz
