Matt flags an important article on Iran by Fareed Zakaria:
Iranians aren't suicidal. In an interview last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the Iranian regime as "a messianic, apocalyptic cult." In fact, Iran has tended to behave in a shrewd, calculating manner, advancing its interests when possible, retreating when necessary. The Iranians allied with the United States and against the Taliban in 2001, assisting in the creation of the Karzai government. They worked against the United States in Iraq, where they feared the creation of a pro-U.S. puppet on their border. Earlier this year, during the Gaza war, Israel warned Hizbullah not to launch rockets against it, and there is much evidence that Iran played a role in reining in their proxies. Iran's ruling elite is obsessed with gathering wealth and maintaining power. The argument made by those—including many Israelis [--] for coercive sanctions against Iran is that many in the regime have been squirreling away money into bank accounts in Dubai and Switzerland for their children and grandchildren. These are not actions associated with people who believe that the world is going to end soon.
Those are all good points in favor of engagement with Iran, as are the various Iranian outreach efforts chronicled by Flynt Leverett. Zakaria also points out that Iran's own rehtoric is focused on producing nuclear energy, not nuclear weapons. The only thing to add to Matt's observation that we need to be very skeptical about any absolute assertions about Iran's goals and capabilities is that there is not much reason to believe our intelligence in Iran is any better than our intelligence was in Iraq in 2003. Sometimes you hear that Iran could have a nuclear weapon in 2010; sometimes you hear it will take until 2015. That's a pretty big window.
It also strikes me as strange that there is so much more hysteria surrounding the Iranian search for nuclear whatever than the fact that North Korea actually has nuclear weapons, especially given this week's news from that country. Compared to North Korea's Stalinist regime, Iran is a political and social open book in terms of transparent governance and the willingness to act in their own apparent interests. North Korea also threatens nearby U.S. allies, but we rarely have people concluding that we'll need to go to war with them over the issue. It's an interesting dynamic.
-- Tim Fernholz
Photo of Tehran courtesy Flickr user youngrobv.
