The primary elections for Kentucky's Senate seat have attracted attention and excitement this year, and not just around libertarian firebrand Rand Paul, who is cruising to what seems an inevitable victory in the GOP primary. In part because of Paul's success, Kentucky Democrats think they have a chance to capture the Senate seat right out from under the Republican despite a challenging political climate. Today, they are choosing between two potential challengers.
But whom will they pick? Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo nearly upended retiring Republican incumbent Jim Bunning in 2004, but the state's attorney general, Jack Conway, represents a younger, more progressive voice. Polls say the race between Mongiardo and Conway is a toss-up, with 12 percent of primary voters still undecided, though momentum is behind Conway. Whomever is chosen by voters, both are well positioned to learn from the failed campaigns of Massachusetts' Martha Coakley and Virginia's Creigh Deeds.
Yes, you read that right: The two most disappointing Democratic campaigners in recent memory provide a perfect how-not-to guide for Conway, Mongiardo, and, indeed, Democrats across the country seeking red-state seats in 2010's tough political environment.
The Mongiardo-Conway matchup is an interesting one: Conway, the candidate of urban Kentucky's Golden Triangle, is a bit more progressive and yet is the establishment's candidate, unofficially preferred by party leaders in Washington and bearing the endorsements of major newspapers and state officials, including former Sen. Wendell Ford, the last Democrat to hold this seat. Conway is a rising political star who worked on the Hill before returning to Kentucky, and with more seasoning, some say, he could even be Kentucky's first presidential candidate in years.
Mongiardo, meanwhile, draws his support from a rural base in eastern Kentucky and is a tick more conservative, able to appeal to Democratic "heritage" voters who typically vote for the Republican without changing their registration. After he surprised many with his 2004 near-successful attempt to take down Bunning, who initially appeared invulnerable but only survived the spirited challenge thanks to a last-minute intervention from his fellow Kentucky senator (and Republican leader) Mitch McConnell.
Mongiardo's ability to garner so much support -- during a national election when John Kerry lost to George W. Bush by 20 points in Kentucky -- is a strong argument for his candidacy. The result also gives Democrats generally good feelings about their chances in the state.
"Jim Bunning is a terrible candidate? Hello, Rand Paul!" says Eric Schultz, a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson. "I feel very good about what 2004 means for 2010 in that seat."
Yet opinion research indicates Conway has the best chance of beating Paul in a general election; Paul leads both Democrats but the most recent polling shows Mongiardo down five to the Republican while Conway sneaks within the margin of error. Some observers in the state credit the difference to the support of moderate Republicans in Conway's home base of Louisville, while others suggest it is because Conway's positions are not as well known.
However the primary turns out, though, we can expect a similar campaign from either Democrat.
"Economy is going to be the overriding issue, and the challenge [for] any Democrat is going to be to separate themselves from Obama's policies," says Al Cross, a veteran Kentucky political observer who now teaches at the University of Kentucky. "We got a saying down here, you gotta get the talk right. There is no talk for [Obama]. There's just no resistance to this anti-Obama mantra that you find coming from Republicans and Fox News."
National Democratic strategists agree. Schultz says that Coakley's Senate campaign failure came in part because of her focus on the legacy of late Sen. Ted Kennedy and President Barack Obama's health-care plan, not on her record as a crusading attorney general who held corporate interests accountable. In an anti-incumbent climate, Democratic candidates need to cast themselves as agents of accountability, not part of a movement.
Similarly, the temptation for Democrats in this race will be to cast Paul as an extreme right-winger, but that won't fly in a state where most voters already lean conservative. Deeds tried that in the Virginia gubernatorial race after reporters unearthed a thesis containing radical anti-gay and anti-choice views written by Bob McDonnell, who won the race handily. Now in office, McDonnell has already come under fire for easing discrimination rules designed to protect gay citizens and highlighting Confederate history, but the issue didn't move voters before he came into office.
Nonetheless, Democrats are confident they can exploit Paul's far-right stances without alienating moderate voters, citing his opposition to a variety of government programs from the Department of Education to farm subsidies and his association with the Tea Party movement.
Kentucky Democratic political consultant Danny Briscoe says he can't stay on message: "When you strip away the veneer, he might be a whack job."
Briscoe, though, still sees a tough road ahead for the Democrats. Underestimating Paul is dangerous, he warns, because while his views may not be mainstream, he is a better candidate than Bunning and can further leverage his national political base for fundraising purposes -- perhaps why many party grandees prefer Conway to Mongiardo, whose ability to raise money has been rather lackluster.
Nonetheless, Democrats predict that early polls showing a close race between the Democratic candidate and Paul will stimulate their own donors around the country -- a chance to snatch a Republican seat next fall will be a rare and presumably attractive opportunity.
Then it's a sprint to see who can frame the debate first: If this is a campaign about jobs and the Kentucky economy, the Democrat will have a chance. If it's about President Obama's agenda, then the state could send the first Tea Partier to the Senate.
