USA Today
This week, as Congress reconvenes, President Clinton will be coming under increasing criticism for the inadequacies of NATO's bombing campaign. But the favored alternative - a ground war - is something for which we are wholly unprepared. It's not just a matter of military tactics; it's a question of national will.
There are two great opposing forces in the world today. The first is technology. The second is tribalism. Technology is based on knowledge, rationality and invention. Tribalism is based on passion, ethnicity and myth. We like to think that technology is about the future, and tribalism about the distant past.
Both of these great forces have been at work in the Balkans. So far, the United States and its NATO allies have waged a technological war - replete with Stealth bombers, computer-guided cruise missiles and digital satellite imaging.
Serbia is waging a tribal war. President Slobodan Milosevic's troops are burning, destroying and killing their way through Kosovo. The Serbians are motivated by tribal hatreds originating centuries ago.
Technological warfare is expensive in terms of the money needed to pay for all the fancy gadgets. The cost of one Stealth bomber is a fair percentage of Milosevic's entire military budget. But technological warfare doesn't demand much personal sacrifice. It can be waged at minimum risk to life. Electronics do the hard work. All we need to do is plot vectors and push buttons, from 100 miles away or 4 miles above.
Techno-warfare allows us to be morally righteous on the cheap. We can stand up to despots like Milosevic or Saddam Hussein without spilling a drop of American blood.
But here's what we're discovering in the Balkans: The force of modern technology is no match for the force of ancient tribalism. Instead of defeating tribalism, our smart bombs are enflaming tribal passions.
This is the blind spot at the center of technological warfare - the assumption that advanced weapons systems will undermine support for a dictator. We're told that NATO's bombing targets are being chosen to "maximize their psychological impact." The Pentagon says the Yugoslav army is suffering "morale problems." The White House assures us that Milosevic is being weakened by the bombardment.
But in tribal terms, Milosevic is stronger now than he was before the bombing started. Many Serbians who had been doubtful about him are rallying to the cause of their homeland under attack. America has become the villain.
The bombing may be weakening Milosevic's ability to wage war, but it's strengthening his tribal grip. Even if it eventually brings him to the bargaining table, he'll have a stronger hand because the Serbian people are more united behind him, more passionate about their cause.
Why was the administration caught off guard? Why didn't it know? It overestimated the power of technology and underestimated the power of tribe. This was an understandable mistake. For most of the last half century, in most of the world, the force of technology has subdued tribalism. TV, movies, wireless telephones, satellite and fiber-optic cables, container ships and supersonic jet travel have all exposed narrow ethnic groups to the larger world. In so doing, technology has overcome isolation and xenophobia. It's hard to maintain ancient hatreds when you own a cell phone. But techno-warfare is having the opposite effect.
If we want to stop the slaughter and ensure that the Kosovars can safely return to their homes, we will have to confront those passions directly - on the ground. This is the heart of the American dilemma. Milosevic's "ethnic cleansing" sickens us. We don't want him to be able to get away with it. We know, too, that our credibility is at stake. And there's also a chance that, were he to prevail, the entire region will be destabilized. Yet, so far, Milosevic's dirty work hasn't stirred America's own tribal passions enough for us to willingly sacrifice our own young people in a ground war.
Moral indignation alone won't do it. Before Americans seriously commit to the kind of personal warfare that requires American blood, we would have to feel the outrage deep in our bones. Before we willingly sacrificed members of our own tribe, we would have to believe that our way of life is threatened.
It's easy for pundits and politicians to argue that the president should send in ground troops. But they're talking military tactics, not American lives. Let those pundits and politicians be there when the body bags start coming home. Let them then make the case to the American people that the sacrifice is worth it.
The fact is, Americans are not psychologically ready for a ground war in Yugoslavia.
It's not Milosevic who has a morale problem. We do.
Technological warfare requires brains and money. No problem. We have a lot of both. We'll devote all that's needed.
But a ground war requires hearts and lives. That's a price maybe some Serbs and Kosovars are willing to pay. We're not, at least not yet.
