Think of it: If God had made Strom Thurmond just six weeks older, the Senate would still be under Democratic control.
It's enough to shake one's faith -- and mine was none too strong to begin with. But then it became apparent that the Almighty was, as usual, one step ahead. He had devised a divinely devious plan.
First He induced Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) to blackmail President George W. Bush. Lott evidently did this by threatening to resign his Senate seat if forced to abdicate the leadership. Because Mississippi has a Democratic governor, this would have put the Senate back at 50-to-50 and the Democrats within one defection of control. The device worked, of course. Bush rebuked Lott but stopped short of pushing him overboard.
But that merely moved the drama on to the next scene. There are Republican senators, such as Lincoln Chafee, John McCain, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins and Richard Lugar, who have a certain honor to defend. Let them be reminded. Strom Thurmond ran for president in 1948, not merely to defend segregation but to actually oppose a federal anti-lynching law. The palm card passed out for Thurmond in Mississippi put it this way:
REMEMBER: A vote for Truman electors is a direct order to our Congressmen and Senators from Mississippi to vote for passage of Truman's so-called civil rights law in the next Congress. This means the vicious FEPC -- anti poll tax -- anti-lynching and anti-segregation proposals will become the law of the land and our way of life in the South will be changed forever.
Can these men and women really allow Lott to stay in his post? Can they possibly afford not to stand up and be counted against him? Will the same blackmail work on them? We shall see.
Meanwhile, Bush may be losing on another front. It appears that Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez is holding out in a tense struggle over the fate and future of democracy in that country. Chavez is bitterly opposed by Venezuela's upper crust, just as he is strongly supported by the poor. But as I write, the oil lockout has been at least partly broken; tankers have filled and sailed for the United States. The military has remained loyal, shops are open, subways are running and (mostly) peaceful crowds have gathered around the pro-coup commercial television stations. Perhaps most importantly, a sniper (like the provocateur most likely responsible for three killings at an anti-government rally last week) has not yet found President Chavez's range.
Clearly the United States is involved. A Uruguayan politician blew the whistle on a request for help from the administration in support of a coup. In a desperate move, Bush issued a public statement on Dec. 13 calling for early elections. But why? Unlike Bush himself, Chavez was elected. There is no reason for him to step down other than the intransigent opposition of the Venezuelan upper classes. The "rebellion of the spoiled brats,"they are calling it. Canada quickly distanced itself from Bush's statement.
The American press has been even more than usually disgraceful on this matter, aligning itself uncritically with official disinformation. If you want to read the real news, check out the indispensable Narco News Network. The game is not yet over, but so far it hasn't gone exactly to plan.
Meanwhile, speaking of free, fair and democratic elections, it was a pleasure to visit Brazil in late November. There was a palpable pride in the election of Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva, an authentic trade unionist (can you imagine?) whose bumper stickers everywhere read, "Por um Brasil decente."
Lula recently visited Washington, where, it appears he placed a simple bargain in front of Bush, that great free trader: Give us free trade, said Lula, and we will pay our debts. It is too bad, of course, that Brazil's orange juice, currently excluded by a steep tariff, would flood Florida more effectively than an Antarctic meltdown. Lula made no threats. But if Bush wants to defend the Jebberglades more than he wants free trade, why then should Lula put himself out over the big banks, insurance companies, pension funds and others? Choices, choices, George. Government is hell.
And finally, in Iraq news, there is no sign yet of the slightest weapon of mass destruction. The inspections go forward, undercutting -- even if in the final analysis they may not be able to stop -- the rush to war.
Perhaps the Almighty has not yet wholly abandoned stray cats, small children and the United States of America. Happy New Year.
James K. Galbraith teaches at the University of Texas at Austin.
