Matt Barreto at Latino Decisions, which specializes in polling the Hispanic community, notes a startling rise in Latino voter enthusiasm in recent weeks:
For the fourth straight week, we find an increase in the percentage of Latino registered voters who report being very enthusiastic about voting in November 2010. Four weeks ago just 40.3% of Latinos said they were very enthusiastic, and today that figures reaches 58.3%. Self-reported turnout certainty remained constant at 75.1% from one week ago, up 10 point from four weeks ago. As election day draws near, and early voting is in full swing, Latinos are reportedly showing more and more interest and enthusiasm. In response to the “don’t vote” campaign, Univision and Telemundo are both increasing their get-out-the-vote public service announcements, and Latino civic groups such as NALEO, NCLR, Mi Familia Vota and others are doubling their efforts to mobilize Latino voters down the stretch. With close statewide elections for Governor and U.S. Senate in nearly a dozen states with sizable Latino electorates, Latino voter turnout could make the difference in many of these contests.
Even stylized objective journalism has traditionally taken a pro-democracy slant in its coverage, but the civic-participation efforts of Telemundo and Univision take on a kind of partisan meaning in an electorate in which the rising nativism of the GOP has left Latino conservatives without a party, to the point where they're simply telling Latinos not to vote. More Latinos voting is good for the Democrats, but only because for the moment, the GOP has deliberately taken themselves out of the game. Ideally, voter participation shouldn't be a partisan issue.
In any case in a state like Nevada, whether or not Sharron Angle becomes a senator could hinge on Latino turnout. It already seems to be making the difference in California. According to one recent poll, Democrat Jerry Brown has opened up a large lead (52-39) over Meg Whitman, in part because Brown's lead among Latinos has jumped 17 points in the aftermath of Whitman's nannygate scandal.
The Brown-Whitman race, by the way, is a classic example of Republicans beating themselves with anti-Latino animus, as opposed to Democrats really winning Latinos over. In early July, Brown didn't even have a Spanish-language website.
