Yesterday the Pew Hispanic Center released their Yesterday the Pew Hispanic Center released their latest voter research, which found that despite a drift toward the Republican Party in the the previous two presidential elections, Hispanic voters are now returning to the Democrats. Fifty-seven percent of Hispanic registered voters identify as Democrats or say they lean Democratic. Only 23 percent said identify as Republican, putting a 34 point gap between the parties. The gap was just 21 percent in July 2006. This comes just ahead of Sunday's Spanish-language Republican Univision debate, in which the GOP candidates will attempt to win the favor of a demographic they've avoiding (when they're not directly offending them, that is).
But while 9 percent of the eligible voting population is Latino, they currently make up only 6.5 percent of likely voters. Their turnout has been increasing rapidly in the past few elections, however, up 33 percent between 2002 and 2006. And according to the Pew report, as of September, more than one-third of the estimated 45.5 million Latinos living in the U.S. were under 18 – meaning we're on the verge of a boom in the eligible voting population. And these younger Latino voters are engaged. According to Nielson Media Research, the Democratic Univision debate in September drew 4.6 million viewers, while the average for the other Dem debates has been 4.3 million. And of those who watched the first Univision debate, 53 percent were between the ages of 25 and 54, compared to just 37 percent of those who watched the Democratic debate on MSNBC two weeks later.
Yesterday, Rev. Luis Cortes, the evangelical head of Esperanza USA who backed Bush in 2004, participated in a conference call with Howard Dean and condemned the Republican candidates for their stances on immigration. It was no small win for Dems, who are likely to gain more traction with Hispanic voters as leaders like Cortes shed their Republican ties only evidence. In the long term, it will be difficult for Republicans to undo strained relations with the most rapidly growing voting block in the country. The fact that they're even participating in the Univision debate is an attempt to rectify that, since in September all but McCain declined the invitation to participate. Sunday's rescheduled event should prove interesting indeed.
--Kate Sheppard
