It seems that on Friday, the president will announce his plan to withdraw from Iraq in the next eighteen months, or by August 2010. Now, he'll be leaving behind some 30,000 and 50,000 troops as a residual force -- for perspective, there are approximately 30,000 soldiers in South Korea now -- until December 2011, barring some renegotiation of the Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqis. Spencer's commentary seems spot on about the politics of the situation, and particularly the 90 day compromise between his campaign promise and the need to placate both the military commanders on the ground and the Washington establishment. But make no mistake: this is beginning of the end of the conflict in Iraq. Nonetheless, there are still challenges: What if violence flares up -- especially around ethnic conflict as Iraq's political factions prepare for a post-occupation Iraq -- while American troops pull out? It's a hard question to answer (I imagine the administration has some thoughts on the issue) nor is it inevitable, but phasing out the troops needs to accompany renewed efforts to phase in regional players and continue building Iraq's security and democratic institutions.
-- Tim Fernholz
