I know we're all supposed to be getting ready to attack Iran and being really concerned that their nuclear program has accelerated to a speed that's still slower than we thought, but it may be time to notice that the regime is desperately trying to negotiate if only we would give them a face-saving way to do so. A spokesperson for Khamenei -- who, unlike Ahmadinejad, has real power -- said that freezing uranium enrichment would be on the table in negotiations, declared the Holocaust a historical matter that should be left to scholars rather than politicians, and even hinted at a willingness to accept a compromise plan by Mohammed el-Baradei that would essentially end their nuclear program while keeping a few face-saving centrifuges in operation.
The impetus for all this talk of compromise? The UN Resolution passed last month, and the onrushing reality of real sanctions, particularly at a moment when oil prices are falling. According to Abbas Milani, head of Iranian studies at Stanford, the one thing that could fundamentally disrupt this process is an American strike:
In other words, what the unilateral and increasingly quixotic American embargo could not do in more than a decade, a limited United Nations resolution has accomplished in less than a month. And the resolution succeeded because few things frighten the mullahs more than the prospect of confronting a united front made up of the European Union, Russia, China and the United States. The resolution was a manifestation of just such a united front.
While the combination of credible force, reduced oil prices and a United Nations resolution has worked to create the most favorable conditions yet for a negotiated solution to the nuclear crisis, any unilateral American attack on Iran is sure to backfire. It will break the international coalition against the Islamic Republic's nuclear adventurism; it will allow China, Russia and even some countries in Europe to legitimately side with the mullahs; it will lead to higher oil prices and an increase in Iranian government revenues; and finally, it will help revive the waning power of the warmongers in Tehran.
So let's stay away from that, huh? And maybe even enter into talks with the Iranian regime that will allow them to bargain away their nuclear program without preemptively sacrificing their dignity and, in reality, their political futures. Giving your opponents the room to say yes is a treasured negotiations tactic, albeit one we've completely and inexplicably tossed out the window. Moreover, a demonstrated willingness to end this crisis diplomatically -- even at the cost of contravening our no-negotiations rhetoric -- might increase the confidence of our allies that they're not just aiding a crazed, ideologically-motivated invasion scheme, and thus heighten their willingness to exert real economic pressure. That's the sort of thing we should do now, in the winter, while gas prices are low. The closer we get to summer, the less sanctions will matter.
