×
- Conservatives are understandably excited about the rehabilitation the GOP brand has received in the wake the RNC, but Gallup observes that such increases in support are normal post-convention, adding that the only unknown is staying power -- bounce or bump? If the latter, I'd side with the conventional wisdom that asserts the presidential debates can quickly deflate replace convention-based movement in the polls.
- Christopher Beam has a piece in Slate on the "End of Facts," not exactly a new phenomenon by my reckoning, but certainly one whose profile has been raised in the past two weeks. In his own folksy way Mike Huckabee raises the same issue, when he implores McCain-Palin to "shift back to the issues."
- Jonathan Stein raises a small Obama advantage in McCain's decision to almost exclusively appear with Sarah Palin at campaign events: "The fact that Cindy McCain is usually by her husband's side means that, for the GOP, the presidential candidate, the vice-presidential candidate, and the presidential candidate's wife are all in one place on any given day. On the Dem side, those three figures are all fully capable of campaigning unaccompanied."
- His naked overconfidence aside, having Bill Clinton on the trail for Obama is probably one of the smartest things the campaign could do right now.
- I'm not sure if you ought to read Rebecca Traister's piece in Salon on the "zombie feminists of the RNC" before or after you take in this revolting misappropriation of one of feminism's enduring symbols, but make sure you take in both. This is how the Republican party does feminism.
- Voter disenfranchisement shenanigans, Michigan edition. Think it's a coincidence they're black and poor? Somewhat related, Nate Silver has a great analytical piece in TNR, "What's the Matter with Michigan?"
- Lots, and lots of polls to look at. Blankenship has Obama down by five in West Virginia, 44-39, Insider Advantage [PDF] has McCain up by five in Florida, 50-45, Public Policy Polling [PDF] has Obama up one in Colorado, 47-46, Quinnipiac shows Obama ahead in Ohio 49-44, Pennsylvania 48-45, and McCain ahead in Florida, 50-43. Strategic Vision shows McCain with a 48-44 lead in Ohio, though Insider Advantage [PDF] has it closer, with McCain leading 48-47. Insider Advantage also shows McCain leading in Michigan [PDF], 45-44, But Obama leading in Colorado [PDF] 49-46. Rasmussen has Obama with a five-point lead in Michigan, 51-46, and finally Civitas [PDF] has McCain leading in North Carolina 47-44. What does all this mean? It means the swing states are still close, McCain's post-convention bounce is only manifest in national polling, and fundamentally, the race hasn't changed all that much.
- And finally, Prospect founding co-editor Robert Kuttner gets into verbal fisticuffs with right-wing blowhard Sean Hannity. Video here.
--Mori Dinauer
