A day ago, Politico's Mike Allen told us that Arkansas Democratic officials were preparing for a huge loss for Sen. Blanche Lincoln against Arkansas's Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. That loss was projected to be by at least five points, possibly more. Instead Lincoln won by five points, or about 10,000 votes.
It's funny how yesterday that would have been a big win for Halter, but today it's a squeaker for Lincoln. (An email from MoveOn.org, which backed Halter, called it a "tiny margin.") Marc Ambinder points out that a win is a win, and our analysis should be the same. A $10 million campaign backed by national groups didn't defeat her and, as I wrote in May, there's a chance it might even strengthen her in the end.
Ambinder said progressive groups would, and MoveOn did, call the results of Halter's challenge a win for progressives and unions in the state, who showed they could put pressure on Lincoln even in a state that is as anti-Union as Arkansas. He asks, as I did last week, what kind of a win it is:
There wasn't much ideological room between Halter and Lincoln. In the end, it was hard to figure out what the race was about. Clearly though, "sending a message" resonated widely. What message? Don't know. Not an ideological message. But Netroots pressure and labor pressure DID work. It DID force Lincoln to introduce a tougher derivatives bill.
The derivatives bill is the only clear victory, but it's a big one. But if Halter had won, I'm not sure they would have gotten much more. There wasn't much difference between the two, and it's hard to imagine a true progressive ever coming from such a fundamentally conservative state. The support of national liberal groups could have hurt Halter in November. As to how Lincoln will fare in the general, conventional wisdom, of course, says she is toast. Just keep in mind that she was toast yesterday, too.
-- Monica Potts
