So boss Mark Schmitt has a compelling theory that the GOP will rebuild itself at the state level through strong governors who can govern in a technically competent if conservative way, citing chief executives like Pataki, Engler, Thompson, Whitman, and Voinovich who seemed in the late nineties to be a raft of sanity in the sea of madness emitting from the Republican opposition in Washington.
And of course, now we mention almost entirely GOP governors as we speculate about (ugh) 2012. Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Sarah Palin and, of course, Bobby Jindal. But it looks like Bobby has run into some trouble down on the Bayou, as he gambled his state's future on the rising price of oil.
Louisiana was able to make up nearly 17 percent of its revenue from oil taxes as prices climbed to $143 per barrel, but now that they sit at around $40, things don't look too good. A $1 billion surplus was already spent at the beginning of the year, and then the state rolled back an income tax increase. Suddenly, the state is facing a deficit next year of $2 billion. It's the last place a governor wants to find himself -- especially a conservative governor who embraces the insane GOP tax gospel that makes no provision for increasing government revenues even when that is a good idea. Jindal has announced -- smartly -- that he won't run for president in 2012, but that means he needs to win his 2011 election if he wants to have a future in national politics. And that will be hard to do if he doesn't make some tough governing decisions with aplomb. Despite the familiarity with which Jindal is spoken of in Washington, he's actually spent more time in government here as a executive branch appointee and congressman than he has as Louisiana's governor (he's been in office just under a year).
Right now, there are more Democratic governors in the United States than Republican ones, but expect that balance to shift as states take on the brunt of the recession -- unless, of course, President-elect Obama's economic stimulus plan includes plenty of aid to state programs. But just as the recession presents both a challenge and an opportunity to Obama, it does the same to folks like Jindal. Only Jindal's fiscal toolkit is much more limited. Time to get creative, governor.
--Tim Fernholz
