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Which is to say, you make your own luck. Relatedly, Fred Kaplan writes today that Barack Obama is lucky to get some breaks in the foreign policy environment. But Kaplan has confused wise foreign policy decisions with luck. It's tough, I know, after eight years of madness, to discern wise thinking, but not all good developments are luck. You'd like some examples? Sure you would.
- Iraq: Kaplan sez, "Just a few days after Obama's victory, the Iraqi political factions seemed much more disposed to sign a new Status of Forces Agreement with the United States." That's because Obama has made it clear he will withdraw from Iraq, not just because of magic luck. Let us recall the wise words of Hadi al-Ameri, an important Shi'ite leader: “If Republicans were still there, there would be no respect for this timetable. This is a positive step to have the same theory about the timetable as Mr. Obama.”
- Iran. Kaplan has a stronger case here, since the Bush administration is stepping forward to open an interests section. But it's not like an Obama administration couldn't do that. Indeed, the fact that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is losing popularity is kind of beside the point: He's not the most important leader in Iran anyways! And he's been losing popularity for some time now. Again, basically, these are nice things to happen, but they all depend on an administration that is interested in negotiations.
- Russia. Kaplan: "President Dmitry Medvedev's recent rumblings -- his threat to place short-range missiles in Kaliningrad if the United States proceeds with its plan to install missile-defense batteries in the Czech Republic and Poland -- may, if played right, redound to Obama's benefit." I guess the key thing there is "if played right," which might indicate a foreign policy actor has some agency. For the answer to this one, here's a special guest appearance by Adam. Short answer: Seems like they're playing it right.
- North Korea. Kaplan: "Now Bush is leaving Obama with a much less-satisfying deal -- during Bush's no-talking period, Pyongyang built and tested an atomic bomb and thus gained considerably greater leverage -- but Bush is leaving Obama something to take to the next level without sparking (too much) partisan rancor." Not much to disagree with here, except to note that if Cheney's office hadn't forced us to renege on the North Korea deal, we'd be in an even better position. In fact, it's almost as if foreign policy decisions have consequences!
- Military Spending. Kaplan: "Obama's fortune is that he can order the cuts [in military spending], invoking not his own preferences but the sober-minded urgings of a business advisory group in the Bush administration." This is also actually a stroke of good fortune for the president-elect. But I'd note the key thing is that this whole action requires a president who is willing to cut inessential military spending, and it's that we'll have one.
So Kaplan goes 2 for 5. But, for the future, let's remember that the dichotomy isn't bad policymaking versus lucky policymaking. It's bad policymaking versus good policymaking.
--Tim Fernholz
