To continue speculating over McCain, Publius has a follow-up post that gets the once-and-future maverick's strategy just right. "I think everything John McCain does for the next two years must therefore be seen in the context of winning the GOP primary. He doesn't need to win the heart of the nation -- he thinks he has that already. But what he ain't got are the hearts of GOP primary voters." Given that set of constraints, "the consequences of what happened [Rohe denouncing him], on balance, helped him. And I think his advisors have realized that in the last few days. That's why I suspect it was a conscious decision of McCain's aide to elevate the issue by attacking Rohe."
Or so McCain's advisors believe. Mark Salter, who's name was attached to the blast against Rohe, did his job well. And it would've been nice were Rohe a savvier adversary, one who didn't muse over the thrill that would arise if she "tore McCain's speech apart before he even opened his mouth." She played into Salter's hands during their exchange. Nevertheless, her actions were necessary.
The lay of the land looks something like this. McCain's candidacy is an almost Kerry-esque appeal to electability. The GOP, anxious over low numbers and the normal pendular impulses of the American people, will override their preferences in an effort to retain power. Happens all the time: think Dean and Kerry. If McCain ceases looking electable, his soft support will bleed out amongst the rest of the field -- primary goers will vote their allegiance, not their cynicism. When does McCain cease looking electable? When his numbers among Democrats and Independents drop, creating a backlash narrative that McCain then has to react to by a) moving left and pissing off primary voters or b) moving right and pissing off everyone else.
But for that to happen, McCain needs to end up in high profile confrontation with the left as often as possible. If that makes him look more conservative, so be it. McCain will never be truly acceptable to the right, he just may be necessary. If, in making him less necessary we make him more acceptable, that's a smart tradeoff. So let a thousand Rohe's bloom. They may lose their battles, but that's the only way to fight this war.