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The results of the Af-Pak policy review are starting to dribble out, and the first news is that the U.S. wants to massively increase the Afghan Army and National Police forces to nearly 400,000. This is definitely a good idea in terms of improving security and increasing the government of Afghanistan's capacity for eventual U.S. withdrawal, but at the same time a worrisome development. Why? It's a totally unsustainable expansion for the Afghan government, which is currently supported almost entirely by foreign aid.
But even members of Mr. Obama’s national security team appeared taken aback by the cost projections of the program, which range from $10 billion to $20 billion over the next six or seven years.By comparison, the annual budget for the entire Afghan government, which is largely provided by the United States and other international donors, is about $1.1 billion, which means the annual price of the program would be about twice the cost of operating the government of President Hamid Karzai.Those figures include only the cost of training and establishing the forces, and officials are still trying to determine what the cost would be to sustain the security forces over the long term.While some of the costs are related to getting the program off the ground, the Afghan economy can't supply an army that large. Of course, one hopes over the next several years that the new strategy works and we see economic development scenarios looking more rosy, but my understanding is that even a best-case scenario couldn't sustain this kind of troop build-up. Which leads me to envision a world five or six years down the road where we have a large Afghan Army that suddenly can't paid anymore. That sounds like a recipe for more warlords, or a recipe for a very large long-term U.S. financial commitment; neither scenario is particularly attractive. For more, see Spencer.
-- Tim Fernholz
