I'm not enough of an elections analyst to check his work, but Marc Ambinder has picked through the general election map and concluded that about 220 electoral votes are either safe McCain votes or likely to fall to him, 212 electoral votes are either safe or likely Obama votes, and there are 107 or so true toss-up votes. These are Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Pennsylvania (21) Iowa (7), Ohio (20), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), Michigan (17). If I were to bet, I'd guess Obama takes Virginia, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Michigan for 72 votes and the win. But I'd not put a lot of money on it.
