If you happen to be having a good weekend and want to make sure that stops, I'd recommend taking some quality time with Alan Auerbach and William Gale's new paper estimating the impact of the financial crisis on the longer fiscal crisis. They take issue with the particulars of CBO's analysis -- and their issues make sense, sadly -- in order to argue that our long-term plight is going to get much worse. The fear is a sizable debt-to-GDP ratio that rattles financial markets and makes eventual interest rates much higher. If that happens, and we're heavy into deficit spending, the effects could be catastrophic. On the other hand, the debt-to-GDP ratio was higher after World War II, and the country managed to grow its way out of it. Projections are not prophecy. Which is why the stimulus's long-term provisions are important. The question of immediate recovery is quickly going to give way to the question of sustained growth.(Even wonkier aside: Interest rates are currently very low: This is the cheapest it's been for the government to borrow in 50 years. But Auerbach and Gale argue that sustained lower interest rates also imply lower revenues, and in their calculations, the cash-flow gap dominates, making things worse in the long-term. It's all pretty grim. But a very good argument for serious health care reform and cuts in wasteful defense spending!)Also in the paper is this graph showing federal spending as a percent of GDP since 1932. Compare the size of the stimulus being aimed at this crisis with the eventual ramp-up in spending that ended the Great Depression:
We're spending a lot right now, but this is hardly the most aggressive fiscal experiment in history.
We're spending a lot right now, but this is hardly the most aggressive fiscal experiment in history. 
