Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley has opened up an 11-point lead over former and current Republican rival Bob Erlich, largely based on the fact that the enthusiasm gap facing Democrats all over the country doesn't exist in Maryland. The unemployment rate in Maryland suggests it's still the economy, stupid:
Even though the unemployment rate is still high relative to what it's been in the past, it's lower than it was at its most recent peak in 2009. History suggests that relative fall in unemployment is more important than unemployment being higher than it usually is -- Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1984 with 8 percent unemployment, down from 10 percent in 1982, being the prime example. Things are going relatively well for folks in Maryland, and as a result, Democrats can feel good about their candidate, and residents can feel good about their governor.
This is the dynamic the Obama administration is counting on to carry them to victory in 2012, although first unemployment has to, you know, actually come down.
