Paul's column got me to thinking about how certain match-ups would play in Kentucky. A bit of history: Bill Clinton won the state both times (probably with an assist from Ross Perot in both cases), Gore lost by 15 points in 2000, and Kerry lost by 20 points in 2004. The last is a pretty interesting map; Kerry took Louisville and a few counties in the most Appalachian parts of Appalachia, and Bush took everything else. Although Kerry won the 2004 Kentucky Democratic primary, he didn't perform particularly well here. While a lot of the change in voting patterns can be laid at the feet of ideological change, I still think that regionalism matters. It's true that Clinton substantially outperformed Gore, but despite his Tennessee roots Gore was never viewed as a regional candidate in the way Clinton was. Now, this doesn't mean that someone outside the South can't win Kentucky in 2008, but I do think that regional perception will substantially affect the outcome. To be specific, I think that Hillary Clinton has a very good shot of beating Giuliani or Romney here, and considerably less chance of beating Huckabee. McCain, I'm not sure; he seems to have a lot of support among Republicans I've spoken with, so he also might be pretty strong. Similarly, I think Edwards does well here against anybody, but especially destroys Giuliani or Romney. Obama's kind of interesting; he doesn't seem to have a specific regional identity, and might play very well here. On the Republican side the converse is true, as it will be preferable for any of the candidates to run against Clinton or Obama instead of Edwards. But then again that may all be nonsense. The invigoration of the netroots in Kentucky has been, well, invigorating, and has thus far played out to the benefit of establishment-type Democrats, a trend that will apparently continue into 2008 and that will help Clinton. I also can't shake the feeling that Clinton is just a better warrior than Edwards, which could either a) make up for the regional problem, or b) turn it to her advantage. --Robert Farley
