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Dowd takes to the pages of the Washington Post today to argue that Obama should kill his health-care bill because it will be a political disaster for Democrats, just like the Iraq War was for George W. Bush. While its nice that Dowd is realizing that his old boss' overreach in Iraq turned out to be a political disaster long after he claimed victory, comparing health care to Iraq is a bit different: One was a foreign war that the administration didn't bother to put a real price tag on, and the other is a domestic reform initiative that has been exhaustively studied and debated. Dowd's concern trolling is nice, but see if you can catch what he does here:
As Wednesday's Post-ABC poll shows, a majority of Americans believe that if this bill passes, their health-care costs will rise, the federal deficit will increase, the costs of the overall health-care system will climb, and their own care would be better if the system stays as is. Democrats (including former president Bill Clinton) claim that they need this bill to pass for political reasons. But let's examine that. At present, a majority of Americans are against the effort, the legislation lacks bipartisan support, the costs of the reforms are upfront, and the benefits won't kick in until after the 2012 elections. When has that ever been a formula for political success?That's right: He equates what polls say people believe with what will actually happen. But despite the tough poll numbers, the actual facts are much different from public perception of the bill. Dowd argues that Obama's extensive communications efforts should have convinced people that it was good, but didn't -- all without mentioning the Republican counter-offensive or what the real facts are. True story: A lot of benefits take effect before 2012, including several next year. Personal health-care costs will fall as part of this bill; the federal deficit will decrease by hundreds of billions of dollars; and even the dreaded cost curve will be bent down very slightly -- all this from the CBO and other independent analysts. Care will likely improve with increased access. And this framework can be built on for future improvements.When people see the actual, tangible effects of this bill are different than they expected, that will be the political victory that Clinton is predicting.
-- Tim Fernholz
