John McIntyre gets a lot right here:
The political error McCain and his advisors are making, insofar as it relates to 2008, is that this isn't about the specifics of the policy, which will be sorted out in time and which McCain's war record does provide him cover with conservatives. What really hurts him looking toward 2008, as far as the nomination, is his unwillingness to engage in partisanship. As we enter the election season, partisan Republicans see President Bush getting engaged and turning the 2006 debate toward issues that will help Republicans keep Congress - and they see John McCain personally stepping in and halting GOP momentum.
Partisanship is what conservatives want to see from John McCain. One of the reasons the socially liberal Giuliani is acceptable to many conservatives is his willingness to be partisan. If John McCain still wants to be President - and if he wants to win the Presidency running as a Republican - then he pretty quickly needs to start picking fights with Harry Reid, Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer and not President Bush. If McCain is running for President as an Independent, then he's following a perfect strategy.
The story of the past couple years is how fully partisanship has replaced ideology as the relevant metric for bases of the two parties. Dean's a good example, a reasonably moderate, instinctually technocratic governor who became a liberal hero through early and eloquent displays of political aggression. John Edwards, insofar as I hear much bad about him, gets lashed for being insufficiently partisan and nasty. His "niceness" is a liability. Mark Warner, despite his hype, drew a lot of puzzled looks and subdued golf claps for his DailyKos speech extolling the virtues of bipartisan compromise and respectful cross-aisle consultation. The road to victory is littered with imputations of bad faith.
That said, I think McIntyre is also right that McCain's strategy works well for an independent run. So much as the two bases hunger for a fight, the vast middle still thrills to the empty promises of centrism and compromise. I've long thought McCain should just run as an independent, and long-wondered if his early touting of liberal web guru and Unity 08 founder Nicco Mele's support wasn't a signal he was giving up on the soul-selling path through the Republican primaries and gearing up for a third-party run. That he seems to have given up on pleasing the Republican base this close to the 2006 elections is further evidence for the interpretation.
