MCCAIN'S WOES. It's one thing to say conservatives are supporting Giuliani out of ignorance, but his lead among moderates looks like real trouble for McCain. The calculus for a McCain candidacy was always that he could stack his natural dominance among moderates and independents atop a renewed conservative constituency after spending a few years appealing to the base. In reality, not only has McCain's conservative support failed to manifest, but his lead among moderates has disintegrated. And they're not likely to leave Giuliani when the press exposes him as...more of a moderate. And conservatives aren't likely to run to McCain. If they become disillusioned, they'll go to a dark horse, or a new entrant, like Fred Thompson. So I really don't know where McCain goes from here. --Ezra Klein
