Last night, in a conservative stronghold that sent right-wing guru Jack Kemp and other Republicans to Congress for four decades, the Democratic candidate pulled out a big win in a closely watched special election. The Republican opponent was the front-runner until she embraced the Medicare-slashing Rep. Paul Ryan budget, a move that brought out seniors in force. They're not, it turns out, so eager to see the government take its hands off their Medicare.
Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul won with 47 percent of the vote over GOP state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin to be the next congresswoman from New York's 26th Congressional district, which includes Buffalo. Corwin received 43 percent. The win came as a big surprise to political observers. The district is so conservative that in 2008, it bucked the Democratic wave to give John McCain 52 percent of the vote. In 2010, voters reelected Rep. Chris Lee with 74 percent of the vote, and stood as one of the few districts to support Tea Party candidate Carl Paladino in his run for governor, giving him 58 percent of the vote.
Even after Lee resigned this year because of a sex scandal, few expected his seat to switch sides in the special election. When Jane Corwin entered as the GOP nominee in March, it was simply assumed that she would win the election, despite the presence of a third-party Tea Party candidate in the race.
That was before Ryan's budget. In April, his plan got near-unanimous support from House Republicans, who then touted its Medicare-voucher system as the future for entitlement reform. Members of the party from around the country rushed to express their approval, including Jane Corwin, who said, "We have to get our country's debt under control, and Paul Ryan's budget is bold enough to do that."
But Ryan's Medicare plan goes after a treasured program for a core constituency, and seniors have been expressing their displeasure at town halls across the country. Their ambivalence gave Hochul the chance she needed to turn her campaign around. By late April, she was hammering Corwin with ads that tied her directly to Ryan's plan: "Jane Corwin said she would vote for the 2012 Republican budget that would essentially end Medicare. Seniors would have to pay $6,400 more for the same coverage." By early May, Hochul was leading Corwin 35 percent to 31 percent, with Tea Party businessman Jack Davis pulling away 24 percent of the vote.
Almost immediately, the race went from an obscure special election to a national referendum. House Speaker John Boehner held a fundraiser in the district, and outside groups, including Karl Rove's American Crossroads, flooded the area with ads. Democrats responded by dumping hundreds of thousands into the race. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, conservative outside groups spent $1.34 million, and liberal groups spent $916,583. Total spending exceeded $6 million.
By the eve of the election, Corwin's favorability had dipped to 34 percent, and Hochul was leading the pack with 42 percent of the vote. In the end, conservative spending wasn't enough to overcome the twin effects of a Tea Party challenger and Hochul's "save Medicare" campaign.
Naturally, Democrats are going to spin this to attack House Republicans. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Steve Israel issued a statement immediately after the results were announced that read, "Today, the Republican plan to end Medicare cost Republicans $3.4 million and a seat in Congress. And this is only the first seat." House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said in a statement that the election "sends a clear message that will echo nationwide: Republicans will be held accountable for their vote to end Medicare."
Of course, it's a little premature, and probably a little wrong-headed, to claim the race turned only on one issue. The National Republican Campaign Committee's statement on Corwin's loss includes this morsel of truth: "To predict the future based on the results of this unusual race is naive and risky. History shows one important fact: the results of competitive special elections from Hawaii to New York are poor indicators of broader trends or future general election outcomes."
That's not to say that this race won't matter. Not only is this a historic loss for Republicans but it weakens them in budget negotiations and complicates the picture for GOP presidential candidates, who have to balance Tea Party enthusiasm for Ryan's plan against intense opposition from everyone else.
But the Republicans running in 2012 should know that. Last year, Republicans ran, and won, against Democrats, partly by claiming the Affordable Care Act would destroy Medicare. The GOP presented itself as a champion for entitlement spending on seniors. Now, Republicans are running away from a plan that actually does cut Medicare benefits. The difference is significant -- Democrats used their cuts to wasteful Medicare spending, dollars that did not make the program better, to finance universal health insurance, while Republicans want their cuts to fund tax breaks for the rich. Those who live by the Mediscare, die by the Mediscare.
