Surprising some observers and pollsters who thought he didn't have a chance after being massively outspent, Rep. Kendrick Meek won Florida's Democratic Senate primary yesterday. Already, some people are writing off Meek's general-election candidacy, saying that in a three-way race with conservative Marc Rubio and Republican-turned-Independent Charlie Crist, Meeks' victory only guarantees a spoiler win for Rubio. Meek's campaign manager, Abe Dyk, disputes the notion in a strategy memo sent to the press: In Florida, where Democratic registrations outpace Republicans by more than 600,000, and independents are likely to make up 18% of the electorate, this race will be won by turning out the same Democratic base that just entrusted Kendrick with the party's nomination. ... President Obama remains extremely popular with Democrats -- 84% job approval in the latest Quinnipiac poll -- and Kendrick is the only candidate willing to stand with Obama....CRIST CANNOT WIN
The math does not add up for Florida's elected Republican Governor. ... With universal name recognition, Charlie Crist abandoned his Republican primary fight against Marco Rubio. Only 39% of Democrats supported Crist at a time when Kendrick was completely unknown beyond his district, a number that will be a high-water mark for him running against a Real Democrat. ... With Republicans coalescing around a Tea Party candidate, and Democrats with Kendrick, the math does not exist to elect Charlie Crist. With an expected turnout of 43% Democrats and 40% Republicans, Kendrick needs to win 75% of registered Democrats and just 17% of the registered Independent vote to secure 35% of the vote total. 35%-40% is all that is needed to win in a three-way race.
I spoke with Dyk earlier this morning, and he says the campaign is already taking advantage of the primary momentum, having Meek visit five different media markets today for events. He also noted the advantages of a united Democratic ticket at the state level, where gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink is currently polling ahead of Republican nominee Rick Scott. While it's no easy race for Meek, poll watchers should be careful about underestimating the one Senate candidate who still runs with Obama.
"This is a race between Kendrick Meek, a real Democrat, and two lifelong conservative Republicans, and I think the contrasts are going to be made very clear," Dyk says.
To drive that point home, Meek's staff just forwarded reporters an e-mail sent by Crist's campaign in the fall of 2009, which headlines this quote from the governor: "It's hard to be more conservative than I am on issues -- there's different ways stylistically to communicate that -- I'm pro-life, I'm pro-gun, I'm pro-family, and I'm anti-tax."
-- Tim Fernholz
