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MI SEN: DOES THE RSCC KNOW SOMETHING WE DON'T? Of all the close Senate races in the nation, Michigan rarely factors into the mix. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) has led challenger Mike Bouchard (R) in every poll this year, and no poll has shown the Republican within five points of the incumbent since August. Consultants on both sides of the aisle concluded weeks ago that the result of this race is a foregone conclusion.Why, then, is the RSCC investing in Michigan?
The announcement comes the same day as the latest Detroit News/WXYZ-TV tracking poll shows Stabenow leading Bouchard, 53 percent to 36 percent.Larry Sabato, an analyst at the University of Virginia who monitors congressional campaigns, said the ad spending doesn't necessarily mean that Bouchard is going to be competitive. "It's not necessarily that Michigan is a great place to score a breakthrough," Sabato said. "It's just that every place else is worse."Moreover, Rutgers University political scientist Ross Baker called the move a "head fake.""I think it's a tactical move designed to distract Democrats, to make them think there's some secret Karl Rove data out there that has the race closer than it appears," Baker said.National Republican Party officials pumped $850,000 into Mike Bouchard's campaign on Wednesday, a move the GOP called proof of momentum against Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but one that independent analysts called puzzling.The Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee began airing television ads Wednesday, backing Bouchard and attacking Stabenow, D-Lansing. It's the largest investment in the state this year by one of the national parties' congressional fundraising arms, according to documents filed Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission.
--Steve Benen (crossposted at Midterm Madness)
