Many observers believe the attack on the Imam al-Askari mosque, carried out a little over a year ago, was the moment the country took its decisive turn towards civil war. The mosque was attacked again today, and badly harmed. The picture below has one shot of the shrine taken in 2003, and one taken after the latest attack. You'll notice particularly that the two minarets, the beautiful, golden structure reaching up towards the heavens, have been felled:
The shrine was guarded by local forces, most of them Sunni. In recent days, US forces were becoming concerned that al-Qaeda members had infiltrated the guard unit. Whether that's right, we don't know. But this second attack on the mosque has the potential to plunge Iraq even deeper into civil war and internecine chaos than it has yet descended. Baghdad is now under a 3 p.m curfew, and various Shi'ite leaders, from Sistani to Sadr, are calling for restraint. Whether we'll get it remains to be seen.
Even as the security situation deteriorates, the political and civil tracks remain locked in place. The Iraqis are on track to meet exactly none of the US benchmarks for progress. Kurds are blocking the oil laws, Shi'ites obstructing attempts to reintegrate Baathists into the government, Sunnis want to revisit the Constitution to further empower the executive. And beneath it all, as the New York Times reports, "the promise of compromise now carries less allure than the possibility for domination. Long-suppressed Shiites and Kurds now see total victory within their grasp." It's not a mindset that lends itself to political compromise. And without political compromise, even an Iraq forced into peace and security by General Petraeus's magical reputation wouldn't long survive.
