By Ezra
Because I can't leave well enough alone. Neil makes some good points below, but a few counters:
• On Edwards: I'm a big fan of Johnny, but my enthusiasm is tempered by memories of the 2004 election, where I was astonished to watch Dick Cheney not only hold his own, but often chop Edwards apart, on the stage. And while Edwards may have been more likable, he was pared off against the least appealing opponent since Oscar the Grouch tried for a congressional seat. What killed Edwards was gravitas; he lacked it, Cheney had it -- and a good debater can open that vulnerability wide up. I think there are ways for Edwards to strengthen that area and I'll say more about them in the future, but for now, I don't think Edwards is the antidote to a war hero whose kid is joining the marines and deploying to Iraq.
• On Iraq: Did I mention that McCain's son is joining the marines and deploying to Iraq? That money-where-his-mouth-is credibility is going to be a real problem for Democrats.
• On Style: This is where I think a lot of our analysis is going wrong. Elections, I'd argue, are largely a combination of stylistic and structural factors. While we dislike a lot of the positions McCain has taken, there's simply no doubt that the guy has written the modern book on radiating bipartisanship and unity. Condemn his heresies (or lack thereof) all you want, but I rather doubt the media -- or the voters -- will forget that John Kerry was trying to offer him the vice-presidency in 2004. And, rightly or wrongly, quite a swath of the electorate thinks we need an end to all that bitterness and gridlock they wrongly diagnose as the problem in Washington.
• The Press: I don't know where we're getting this idea that the media will turn on McCain, but I'm wary of it. The guy is a master at the proper care and feeding of the press, and that matters to a disillusioning degree. For some examples of this, I highly, highly recommend that folks order and read Michael Lewis's Trail Fever -- it's a great book on its own merits, but watching McCain charm the pants off Lewis is really something to see.
• His Turn: Republicans historically offer the nomination to their next in line. When Reagan ran against Ford, the establishment turned back his challenge but gave him the nomination in 1980. When Dole ran against Bush, Dole was dispatched, and Bush's dutiful service rewarded. Then, in 1996, it was Dole's turn. In 2000, the GOP elite settled on George W. Bush early. And, in 2008, I think a lot of folks believe good soldier John McCain -- who challenged Bush but was there for them in 2004 -- deserves his shot.
Moreover, if the Republicans lose a significant number of seats in 2006, the impulse for power will overwhelm the instinct for purity, and McCain's popularity might begin looking rather attractive. For proof of this, look at John Weaver's rapprochement with Karl Rove, or the slow migration of heavy Bush funders to the Arizonan's side. The Party's mandarins are starting to move towards McCain, and in the more hierarchal GOP, that matters rather a lot.
Alright -- flame away!
