Like most people in the U.S. who are paying attention to the protests in Egypt, I'm relying on live coverage from Al Jazeera English to find out what's happening (for background, Nick Baumann has a through explainer). Pop Serwer has an interesting take on what they mean for the prospects of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak handing power over to his son Gamal Mubarak:
Whatever the differences, one thing is clear everywhere: it's about the regime. If Mubarak ever hoped to retire peacefully like Diocletian to his villa in Split, he seems to have missed the opportunity. Nor will he be able to easily pass the baton to his son, who is the day's biggest loser. The Mubaraks have lost their best opportunities to make peace. The President faces a starker choice than yesterday: step down or crack down.
My guess is he will try crack down first. It has worked for him in the past. Washington, which as The Guardian says is wobbling on a tightrope, needs to get ready for one of the biggest foreign policy choices of our time: back Mubarak or go for change.
Indeed, despite, as Justin Elliot reports, a well-financed bipartisan lobbying apparatus, the administration is reconsidering aid to Egypt in light of the violent response of Egyptian authorities. During the press briefing today, when asked if the U.S. stood by Mubarak, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said, "We're monitoring a very fluid situation," and confirmed that the administration was "reviewing our assistance posture."
Also, former CIA Analyst Bruce Reidel has a decidedly not panicked take on the prospect of Islamist groups filling the power vaccuum:
The short answer is it is not our decision to make. Egyptians will decide the outcome, not Washington. We should not try to pick Egyptians' rulers. Every time we have done so, from Vietnam's generals to Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai, we have had buyer's remorse. But our interests are very much involved so we have a great stake in the outcome. Understanding the Brotherhood is vital to understanding our options.
Obviously, the concern over what follows Mubarak if he goes is well founded. But there's no getting around the presence of political Islam in the Middle East if democracy is the end goal. You can support democracy in which the risk of Islamists gaining power and influence is present or you can support secular autocratic regimes that reduce the influence of Islamist groups through repressive means, but you can't do both.
