The big debate right now appears to be over whether to calm down about Obama's chances in November, despite his rather anemic lead in the polls, get really worried, or trend towards flat-out optimism. I guess those pretty mich fill out the possible universe of options, and there are strong cases for each. Fundamentally, some of what we're seeing, though, is that campaigns just don't matter that much. There's a new Fox News poll, for instance, where Obama edges McCain among registered voters, 41% to 40%. But when asked which candidate will ultimately win in November, 51% say Obama, while only 27% say McCain. If you're paying close attention to the campaign, that makes perfect sense. Obama receives the lion's share of the coverage, the crowds, the excitement, the dollars. The media may be trying to make the race look competitive, but all stories hinge on the figure of Obama: Why isn't he up more? Will he win? It's like watching a movie where the main character faces trouble, but since he's the main character, you know he can't die. But campaigns aren't particularly responsive to campaigning. They're about partisan loyalties and demographics (how soon we forget the primaries, where Obama's vote totals were best predicted by the state's racial composition), by the economy and sense of the foreign scene. I still think Obama has a pretty significant edge, but it's largely because I think those forces will eventually weigh in heavily on his side, not because he's so much better a campaigner.