HOW MUCH OF A PROBLEM? Mark recently reminded us of his largely prescient analysis of the decrepit 2008 GOP field. It compelled me to look up Amy Sullivan's old article about the potentially deleterious effects of his faith on Romney's chances of winning the primary. Like Mark, I will obviously defer to her expertise here. Still, I wonder how Romney's actual opponents change things. I have no doubt that Romney's faith would be a near deal-breaker if evangelicals had an obvious candidate to rally around. However, that's not really the case; the two other declared major candidates (assuming McCain can even be counted as major anymore) are even more obvious non-starters for evangelicals. Thompson has his own history of abortion squishiness, and it's far from clear that he can emerge as a real contender once he actually runs. It seems to me at this point, then, that Romney's faith is a disadvantage but not a disqualifying factor at this point (and if I read Sullivan correctly, it's not inconsistent with her analysis.) The other thing I'm curious about is why Huckabee -- who seems the most obvious candidate for evangelicals to rally around -- can't get any traction. As long as he's not a major contender, I still think Romney has to be considered the frontrunner. --Scott Lemieux
