Like clockwork, Washington's obsession with “independent voters” reaches its peak during presidential election season. From now until the election, a good portion of Beltway journalism will focus on how policies appear to independents, that large class of rational voters who carefully consider the merits of both parties. Among political scientists, however, it is common knowledge that this image is a myth. As Alan Abramowitz explains, independents are, like almost every other voter, run-of-the-mill partisans:
Research by political scientists on the American electorate has consistently found that the large majority of self-identified independents are “closet partisans” who think and vote much like other partisans. Independent Democrats and independent Republicans have little in common. Moreover, independents with no party preference have a lower rate of turnout than those who lean toward a party and typically make up less than 10% of the electorate.
Abramowitz uses the 2008 presidential election, along with data from the American National Election Study, to bolster his point. In 2008, independents made up 33 percent of all voters. Of that number, 7 percent were true independents with no party preference, and 26 percent were “leaners,” or voters who showed one preference or another. According to the ANES, 87 percent of those leaners voted for the candidate of the party they favored; 91 percent of Democratic leaners voted for Barack Obama, while 82 percent of Republican leaners voted for John McCain. As Abramowitz points out, the 87 percent loyalty rate of independent leaners is identical to that of weak partisans, and only a little lower than the 96 percent loyalty rate of strong partisans.
If independents are already firm in their preferences, then the goal isn't to win them from the other side; after all, Republican independents will vote for Republicans, and Democratic independents will vote for Democrats. Rather, the goal is to boost turnout among friendly independents, while keeping the other side from doing the same. In other words, to “win” independents, Obama needs to work to energize his Democratic base. If this sounds like the usual strategy for winning presidential elections, that's because it is.
