Even at this moment of Republican ascendancy, Democrats maintain a slight advantage in party identification:
When someone says that the Democratic Party is a "natural governing party," this is what they mean. It's not that Democrats are always popular or that their policies are particularly good but that the party is so large and encompassing that at most times, it draws support from a plurality -- if not a majority -- of the public. This doesn't always translate into electoral success, but it does shape the landscape in important ways: i.e., Democrats almost always control at least one chamber of Congress, and their majorities tend to be much larger than Republican ones. Of course, Republicans benefit hugely from malapportionment in the House and Senate, so it's not clear that this Democratic advantage matters that much, as far as electoral success is concerned.
-- Jamelle Bouie