THE NEGOTIATIONS.

Reading through reports on the collapse in the bailout negotiations, I'm starting to believe that rather than smartly coming to town and implementing a controllable strategy of manufactured crisis, John McCain stupidly came to town and inserted himself in the middle of a complicated negotiation that he has little power over. The key players here are not who we thought: Not McCain, or Obama, or Reid or Pelosio or Frank or Bennett or Dodd or Paulson. They are in the congressional leadership or in the campaigns or even in the Senate. They're in the rank-and-file of the House Republican Caucus. Laura Rozen reports:

There is a seriously underestimated gap between the White House and Congressional leadership on one side, and the Congressional rank and file on the other; and that the media reports suggesting a deal was imminent by and large were being informed by the former, who are more committed to a quick deal; while the Congressional rank and file is more informed by being overwhelmed with thousands of calls from screaming constituents who are truly outraged over the prospect of a bailout of Wall Street fat cats. Vulnerable incumbents may not feel they can vote for anything resembling a bailout until after the election.

As you'd expect, McCain was also talking to leadership, and he figured he could come back and preside over the deal. Instead, he returned and, in the chaos of his arrival, House Republicans detonated the negotiations. Ambinder adds to the story, saying, "the House caucus never trusted McCain and White House credibility among the GOP is ZERO. Indeed, maybe McCain feels privately duped by Boehner." Remember here that McCain is a longtime Senator with few relationships in the more ideologically lockstep lower chamber, and his gloryhound concessions have often undermined extremist bills they worked hard to pass.The question now becomes how McCain responds. House Republicans would love him to adopt their crazy free market proposal, but that's certainly not his instinct. The roar of outrage from Paulson, Bush, the commentariat, the op-ed pages, and everyone else is still beyond what he'll comfortable risk. The newspapers have all reported that Paulson flatly rejected the proposal in yesterday's meeting. But McCain may not have a choice. The absolute worst position for McCain is to be supporting the Paulson plan while the Republicans are leading a populist revolt against the bill. And since he's already being blamed for the collapse of the negotiations, he may as well make it seem like The Plan All Along, rather than more evidence that he's out of his depth and trapped in the consequences of a blatant political stunt he failed to properly game out.