One of the odd things about this year's election was how much attention was garnered by what turned out to be some some rather unimportant candidates, like Christine O'Donnell and that Nazi re-enactor guy. In truth, there was a wide variety among even those identified as Tea Party candidates -- some of whom were genuinely nuts, and some of whom were really just ordinary Republicans who saw the opportunity to jump on board a fast-moving train. That's true even of those who got elected. Rand Paul, for instance, doesn't seem to be all that smart, knows virtually nothing about government, and is nearly impossible to imagine turning into an effective legislator. But he had the good fortune of running in a terrific year for Republicans, in a state that tilts overwhelmingly right. Marco Rubio, on the other hand, is a smart guy who had served in the state Senate, was an excellent campaigner, and is someone you could imagine turning into an effective legislator. Both of them called themselves Tea Partiers, but they're very different. Some of the newly elected Republicans are going to stick around for a long time, and some of them are going to be picked off as soon as they have to run in a less hospitable environment.
As Jonathan Bernstein points out, if Democrats want to recover from what happened Tuesday, they've got to start recruiting quality candidates now:
The one thing that the political science literature tells us that matters in Congressional elections and is to a large extent within the control of the parties is the quality of candidates. Very soon, politicians will be making decisions about 2012. Incumbent Democrats who now find themselves lost in the Siberia of House Minority status, and who in many cases will be faced with the chore of learning and appealing to a significantly different constituency thanks to redistricting, will have to decide whether to retire. Ambitious pols -- state legislators, local prosecutors, former Members of the House who just lost their reelection bids -- will have to decide whether 2012 will be promising.
What political scientists have learned is that this is a case in which party prophesies are to a large extent self-fulfilling. Believe that the party is going over a cliff, and you'll wind up with third-rate candidates, who will then lose -- not because of the general environment, but because bad candidates lose Congressional elections. Believe that your party is about to benefit from the wave, and you'll wind up with excellent candidates who will win regardless of whether such a "wave" actually existed.
Indeed. And despite the occasional absurd claim that This Election Changes Everything Forever (some people are even asking if Barack Obama is going to get a primary challenge -- as if), there's a strong case to be made that Democrats have an excellent opportunity to take back the House in 2012, particularly if Obama is romping to re-election over Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney. If you're a Democratic state senator or mayor thinking about making a move to D.C., 2012 could actually be a good time to take the plunge.
-- Paul Waldman
