NEW DEMOCRATS IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. Garance's post about the unpredictability of who will participate in the Iowa caucuses bring to mind another dimension of both Iowa and New Hampshire that has a potentially important effect on both the nominating process and the general election: Both are states with enormous numbers of new Democrats. And by new Democrats, I don't mean the somewhat more conservative Democrats of the DLC, but literally people who have become Democrats only in the last few years. How many? The New Hampshire blog Graniteprof reported recently that Democrats had added 45,000 new registrants since 2002, while Republican registration had stagnated. Registered Republicans still outnumber Democrats, but by less than half the margin of 2002. Traditionally it's taken about 80,000 votes to win a multi-candidate New Hampshire Democratic primary, so 45,000 new Dems will both raise the number and potentially be a significant factor in themselves. In addition, the largest portion of New Hampshire voters are independents who can vote in either primary; they are far less likely to vote in the Republican primary than in 2000, when large numbers of them supported McCain. (A recent Rasmussen poll confirms that intuition, reporting that most N.H. independents who plan to vote in the primary say they'll do it in the Democratic one and disproportionately favor Obama.) In Iowa, the story is similar. Last fall, Democratic registration in Iowa reached 606,000, according to David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register. The last available data from the Secretary of State's office (May 2007 ) puts the number of Democrats at 597,000. In May of 2003, the number of registered Dems was 532,000. Over the four year period, the number of Republicans has dropped from 585,000 to 574,000. Registered Democrats now outnumber Republicans in Iowa by 20,000. Both states were decided by razor-thin margins in 2000 and 2004, but in 2006 Democrats gained two congressional seats in each state, and both seem to be moving rapidly from purple to blue. The new Dems are part of that story. But they could be even more significant to the nomination. It's not known exactly how many people participate in the Iowa caucuses, but's thought to be about 100,000. As in New Hampshire, 65,000 new registered Democrats could make quite a difference, if they choose to participate. Some of the increase probably comes from new registrants, including young people who will more heavily Democratic may still be unlikely to participate, but presumably there are also some number of people who have made an active choice to leave the Republican party, an indication of a significant level of engagement. As Obama in particular tries to avoid the fate of the "wine-track" candidate who appeals to better-educated voters in the odd-numbered year, but is overwhelmed by the Democratic base once the primarying starts, these 110,000 new Democrats in the two states could be a key factor. These are people who by definition weren't part of the Democratic base in the 1990s or later, and probably have no Clinton nostalgia. Another way to think of it is that playing to the party base is a different thing when the base is expanding than when it's shrinking. -- Mark Schmitt
