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NEWBIES AT THE CAUCUSES. Since I noted the stories of some women who were being drawn deeper into Iowa's intensive political architecture by Hillary Clinton and who had not caucused before, I should also note that between 40 and 60 percent of caucus-goers each election cycle are first-time caucus goers, and that it's not unsual to meet people who've never caucused before at events. Because only about 6 percent of eligible cacucus-goers attend the meetings, and because the make-up of that 6 percent changes with each election, all the candidates have to win over experienced caucus-goers while also attracting new ones. Clinton, unsurprisingly, appears to be bringing new women into the caucus orbit. Barack Obama, for his part, has been attracting loads of younger Iowans to his events, and his campaign is hoping to see their enthusiasm spill over on caucus-night. Already, the percent of young Iowans caucusing jumped markedly from 2000 to 2004:
According to caucus entrance polls taken by the national poll team of Edison/Mitofsky, 17 percent of 2004 Iowa Democratic caucus participants were under the age of 30. That was a four-fold increase in numbers of young caucus goers, compared with the 2000 Democratic Caucus, when these younger voters accounted for 9 percent of all participants.Meanwhile, Bill Richardson has been reaching out to the state's Hispanics, with hopes of drawing new caucus-goers from that small but growing population.
No one can yet predict which of these efforts will be most successful. But it seems entirely possible that all of them will meet with enough success that the caucuses this January (December?) will be thronged by a record-breaking crowd.
--Garance Franke-Ruta
