Bainbridge has a very good post on the politics of the next Supreme Court nominee. Bush is apparently assuring conservative leaders that Gonzales will not get the nod, which means we're back to our usual game of taking the shortlist and combining ideology with genetics for the most electorally attractive pick. Bainbridge goes with Edith Clement or Jones. Between the two, I think Clement, a New Orleans native, would be too much to pass up, particularly as the Bush administration wants a clean nomination giving them political capital to spend on the Estate Tax Repeal and Tax Reform.
On the other hand, John Roberts was the longest of long shots last time around and the misdirection was pretty awe-inspiring, so we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. I will say this, though: if Bush does nominate Clement, he will have far, far exceeded my expectations vis-a-vis the Supreme Court. But with cultural conservatives merely lukewarm towards Roberts, I expect him to be seen as Business's Judge and the next nominee will be more of a sop towards the Christian Right. That'd point to Edith Jones or, if Bush wanted to appoint the first Hispanic, Emilio Garza.
