Andrew Bacevich had a nice op-ed in this weekend's LA Times on the many ways the next president will certainly disappoint you on foreign policy. It's the right idea, but I think he actually picked the wrong sphere of policy. As Bacevich says, on foreign policy, "presidents don't make policy; administrations do." That sets down some constraints. But it's nothing compared to domestic policy, where presidents don't make policy Congress does. And the president doesn't get to appoint members of his Congress. Odds are both Obama and McCain will be hemmed in by an increasingly dysfunctional and rotted political system. But the questions for both are rather different. For McCain, domestic policy success will be entirely based on his willingness to compromise with a Democratic majority. If he feels like being second term Reagan, he may be able to get a lot done. If not, he'll be like second term Bush; no achievements to speak of. If he does, the achievements might bear his name but will reflect the Democrats' general vision. For Obama, the question will be whether he can run over the Republican minority, either by pulling in enough moderates to neuter the filibuster or by exercising power and procedure (i.e, the reconciliation process, which disallows the filibuster) effectively enough to to overcome obstruction. It's a tough order. Foreign policy, by contrast, is where either could work with relative autonomy from the checks and balances of Washington. And for McCain, that's actually a bit scary. As Gene Healy demonstrates in The Cult of the Presidency
(best political book I've read this season, incidentally), historians define greatness almost entirely in terms of war. Competent stewards are not remembered by history. Successful warriors are. McCain, who already has more than a minimal inclination towards international aggressiveness, might find his anti-tax agenda constrained by the realities of a powerful opposition Congress, and begin searching elsewhere to make his mark. Some seriously grand interventionism might look all the more necessary to a president who doesn't find his attention captured by other priorities. If so, McCain will certainly be disappointing, but in a much more dangerous style than Bacevich suggests.
