by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
Recent polling has shown several Senate races firming up. If elections were held this weekend, Democrats would defeat incumbents Conrad Burns (R-MT), Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), Mike Dewine (r-OH), Rick Santorum (R-PA). What's more, Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Maria Cantwell (D-WA), and Herb Kohl are both in cruise control, despite once being labelled the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle. Gallup's polling has been largely confirmed by Rassumessen, as well as other independent polling within various states. This means the Blue Team can afford to spend most of its resources on offense. That's the good news.
The bad news is that current projections only show Democrats gaining four seats. The strongest challenger left, Claire McKaskill (D-MO), has occasionally held a lead against Jim "Independent Figher for Missouri's Working Families" Talent (R), but currently trails by several points among likely voters. Dems will need to focus their dollars and bodies on that race along with the four marginally competitive seats—Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona, and Virignia—and hope for another macaca-esque gaffe or buzz-generating ad that turns the sixth seat towards their favor.
If you've got a dollar to give, and you want it to go to the Senate, those five seats are the places where it will do the most good.
