We'll know more tomorrow when the full document is released, but the early leak is that the administration has pumped $634 billion into the budget as a "down payment" on health reform. That's over 10 years, so we're probably looking at $60 billion or so a year. Most estimates place the 10-year cost of health reform at a trillion or so dollars, so this means Congress needs to find $40 or so billion more a year -- either through savings or new sources of revenue -- to fund the program. Keep an eye on that employer tax deduction. This is a nice moment, though, to step back and appreciate the quiet importance of the Congressional Budget Office: If they decide the plan only costs $80 billion that will be much easier for Congress to fund than if they decide the plan costs $120 billion. And those numbers could describe the same plan: The difference will be the assumptions CBO decides to use. They may not be God, as Max Baucus reminded CBO Director Elmendorf earlier today. But when it comes to scoring, they might as well be. Update: Jon Cohn has more. Does that surprise you?
