I was talking with some friends last night about Katherine Miller when someone asked if Barack Obama really opposes gay marriage. Many people assume his public stance is political posturing, but what is he afraid of? Support for gay marriage has been edging upward steadily, and there's confidence that, as gay-friendly youth make up a greater share of the population, that trend will continue.
Yet there is still not a majority in favor of gay marriage, and if major cultural validators like the president of the United States continue their opposition, it makes it harder for support to grow. Or does it? Affirming support for gay marriage could actually be more counterproductive than the president's current endorsement of civil-unions. The problem with having President Obama endorse gay marriage -- one the White House is no doubt cognizant of -- is that it immediately becomes even more of a partisan and politicized issue.
Obviously the Republican Party has staked itself around unreasoned opposition to gay marriage and the president, but what about independent and moderate citizens who might be leery of Obama but support gay marriage out of common sense and basic tolerance. Injecting Obama into the mix would not only tie the discussion to unrelated partisan snits but also lead to even more political organizing around and against gay marriage. Suddenly the debate wouldn't be about whether gay marriage is appropriate but how your stance on gay marriage plays into broader partisan disagreements. Were Obama to offer real support for gay marriage, it might be harder for the public to accept what may soon be a court-sanctioned reality.
There is also the possibility that Obama actually believes that gay marriage is inappropriate. That could be true, but it's also something of a moot point. Whatever the president believes in his heart of hearts is not as important as what he does.
Right now, what he does is push the consensus on ending discrimination, whether it is his enactment of same-sex benefits for federal employees or his support -- even if it is slow-coming -- of ending "don't ask, don't tell." Then there are the dog whistles, like the picture above of Obama meeting one of his aides, her partner, and their sons, which was released on the White House Photo Stream. Or the White House statement condemning the court decision that overturned Proposition 8: “The President has spoken out in opposition to Proposition 8 because it is divisive and discriminatory. He will continue to promote equality for LGBT Americans.” That's not an endorsement of gay marriage, but it's something near to it.
Obama's gay allies have done well to remind the president of his promises on LGBT issues, and they shouldn't stop. But while I agree with Matt Yglesias on the overblown concerns surrounding hypothetical anti-gay marriage backlash from judicial decisions, the dynamics of the president's direct involvement in the issue are akin to those of immigration: Injecting politics into what is, at heart, a moral issue can lead otherwise well-intentioned folks to take shameful positions.
-- Tim Fernholz
