Today we've got a new opinion poll out from The Washington Post that aims to set the stage for the midterm elections. A recent poll from Democracy Corps also provides interesting fodder for analysis (see Kevin Drum) and the above graph (click for a larger version).
Both tell a familiar story of anti-incumbent woe for the governing Democratic majority -- including the lack of a sustained bump from the passage of health-care reform. Like most sensible people, though, I take into account the fact that one in six workers has either lost their job or work hours due to the recession, which plays a big role in public opinion.
That's why the next few months are so important. I've been more sanguine than most about the prospect of a conservative comeback, mainly because I think the Tea Party movement and broader conservative activism peaked a bit too early to sustain serious momentum into November's midterm elections. They've given the Democrats too much time to pivot, learn, and counterattack.
If Democrats can gain ground now -- through politically popular policy like financial reform, forcing hard votes on Republicans, and their advantage in campaign cash -- they may be able able to absorb historically inevitable net losses without destroying their majority completely, or at least without giving Republicans a massive advantage in 2011. Continuing economic improvement may help as well; you'll notice that improved -- though by no means acceptable -- jobs reports coincide with rising right track numbers, especially among self-described independent voters.
Obama remains the most popular political actor in Washington, suggesting once again that congressional Democrats need to associate themselves with the White House and its agenda to keep their own seats -- a remarkable 53 percent of Americans say that Obama's positions on the issues align with theirs.
The strategy that DNC Chair Tim Kaine rolled out earlier this week suggests a keen understanding of the Democrats' best angle: A productive, reality-based set of policy-making problem-solvers versus a band of extreme Wall Street obstructionists. That's certainly not the only way voters are looking at the election, though. There is a strong tendency to say that everything in Washington is a mess -- despite a surprisingly productive Congress -- and it's time to throw the bums out.
Essentially, the Democrats have pinned their hopes on the strategy that voters will look at the 2010 election as a choice about the future, not an echo of 2006's and 2008's anti-incumbent fervor.
-- Tim Fernholz
