I have to disagree with Adam here. Obama's new ad is a great vehicle for linking McCain to Bush while guaranteeing extensive media coverage thanks to the celebrity part -- it demonstrates a great understanding of how the press works, allowing Obama to enjoy his vacation without people carping that he's not responding to his opponent. I'm not convinced that McCain's attack ads are actually moving the electorate; there hasn't been a significant shift in the polls that you can attribute to the McCain campaign. More interesting, as Sean at FiveThirtyEight notes, the Obama campaign is running two local negative ad campaigns in Ohio and Nevada. Overall, though, voters still aren't tuned in, and those who are have been giving Obama a pretty steady -- if small -- advantage over the past two months.
--Tim Fernholz
